This is what Tricia Wang, a technology ethnographer, tried to convince Nokia of: Her qualitative research pointed out that even people with a low income are crazy about smartphones. This was 2009 – and Nokia decided to focus on their existing, well performing business models. But with the launch of the iPhone, the company that before dominated the market became obsolete.
We find it hard to think far into the future beyond our own existence because there is less certainty and evidence to validate decisions. This is not entirely our fault… we are wired to look for information that supports our opinion.
To unlearn this bias, I like to use an experiment by Peter C. Wason as a warm-up exercise in my workshops.
The task: Explain the logic behind the sequence 2 – 4 – 6
You will find the answer and an instruction on how to moderate this exercise in the download here.
